Expert Home Price Forecasts for 2024 Revised Up

evanfitzgerald • February 22, 2024

Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US. This has generally kept home prices up

Over the past few months, experts have revised their 2024 home price forecasts based on the latest data and market signals, and they’re even more confident prices will rise, not fall.

So, let’s see exactly how experts’ thinking has shifted – and what’s caused the change.


2024 Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now

The chart above shows what seven expert organizations think will happen to home prices in 2024. It compares their first 2024 home price forecasts (made at the end of 2023) with their newest projections:

 

The middle column shows that, at first, these experts thought home prices would only go up a little this year. But if you look at the column on the right, you'll see they've all updated their forecasts and now think prices will go up more than they originally thought. And some of the differences are major.

There are two big factors keeping such strong upward pressure on home prices. The first is how few homes are for sale right now. According to Business Insider:

“Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US. This has generally kept home prices up ...”

A lack of housing inventory has been pushing prices up for a long time now – and that’s not expected to change dramatically this year. But what has changed a bit is mortgage rates.

Late last year when most housing market experts were calling for home prices to rise only a little bit in 2024, mortgage rates were up and buyer demand was more moderate.

Now that rates have come down from their peak last October, and with further declines expected over the course of the year, buyer demand has picked up. That increase in demand, along with an ongoing lack of inventory, is what’s caused the experts to feel the upward pressure on prices will be stronger than they expected a couple months ago.


A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Forecast Revisions

Real estate experts regularly revise their home price forecasts as the housing market shifts. It’s a normal part of their job that ensures their projections are always up-to-date and factor in the latest changes in the housing market.

That means they’ll continue to revise their projections as the housing market changes, just as they’ve always done. How those forecasts change next is anyone’s guess, but pay attention to mortgage rates.

If they trend down as the year goes on, as they’re expected to do, that could lead to more buyer demand and even higher home price forecasts.

Basically, it’s all about supply and demand. With supply still so limited, anything that causes demand to go up will likely cause prices to go up, too.


Bottom Line

At first, experts believed home prices would only go up a little this year. But now, they've changed their minds and forecast prices will grow even more than they originally thought. Let’s connect so you know what to expect with prices in our area.


The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Evan Fitzgerald or @properties does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Evan Fitzgerald or @properties. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.


Share this Post

Here’s What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market

April 3, 2025
Author: Keeping Current Matters

Are Investors Actually Buying Up All The Homes?

By evanfitzgerald • March 11, 2025
Are you trying to buy a home but you feel like you’re up against deep-pocketed Wall Street investors snatching up everything in sight? Many people believe mega investors are driving up prices and buying up all the homes for sale, and that’s making it hard for regular buyers like you to compete. But here’s the truth. Investor purchases are actually on the decline, and the big players aren’t nearly as active as you might think. Let’s dive into the facts and put this myth to rest. Most Investors Are Small, Not Mega Investors A common misconception is that massive institutional investors are dominating the market. In reality, that’s not the case. The Mortgage Reports explains: “On average, small investors account for around 18% of the market, while mega investors represent only about 1%. ” Most real estate investors are mom-and-pop investors who own just a few properties — not large corporations buying up entire neighborhoods. They’re people like your neighbors who have another home they’re renting out or a vacation getaway. Investor Home Purchases Are Dropping But what about the big investors you hear about in the news? Lately, those institutional investors – the ones that make headlines – have pulled back and aren’t buying as many homes. According to John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC), at their all-time peak in Q2 2022, institutional investors (those owning 1,000+ single-family homes) only made up 2.4% of home sales. And that number has only come down since then. By Q3 2024, that number had fallen to just 0.3% (see graph below): That’s a major shift, and it means far fewer investors are competing in the market now than just a few years ago. Investors are clearly more reluctant to buy in today’s market, but why? The answer is largely because higher mortgage rates and home prices have made it less attractive for them. The idea that Wall Street investors are buying up all the homes and making it impossible for you to compete is a myth. While some investors are still in the market, they’re not nearly as active as they were in past years. Bottom Line  Big institutional investors aren’t buying up all the homes – if anything they’re buying less than they have been. Let’s connect and talk about what’s happening in our local market. There could be more opportunities than you think. How does knowing investors are buying fewer homes change the way you see your chances in today’s market?

How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates

By evanfitzgerald • July 26, 2024
How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates
More Posts
Share by: